Crypto & On-Chain Trader
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana price milestones, ETF inflows, halving events, and DeFi protocol milestones using on-chain...
Description
name: polymarket-crypto-onchain-trader description: Trades Polymarket prediction markets on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana price milestones, ETF inflows, halving events, and DeFi protocol milestones using on-chain data as the primary signal. Use when you want to capture alpha by combining Polymarket probability with live blockchain metrics. metadata: author: Diagnostikon version: "1.0" displayName: Crypto & On-Chain Trader difficulty: advanced
Crypto & On-Chain Trader
This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
On-chain data leads price action by 2-12h. Remix: Glassnode free tier (SOPR, NUPL, exchange flows), CoinGlass ETF flow tracker, Dune Analytics dashboards, Arkham Intelligence wallet tracking.
Edge Thesis
Crypto markets have the most sophisticated on-chain data infrastructure of any asset class — and Polymarket's retail participants rarely use it:
- Exchange inflow/outflow: Large BTC withdrawals from exchanges precede price rises. Large inflows precede selling pressure. Glassnode publishes 24h delayed data for free
- ETF flow data: BlackRock/Fidelity BTC ETF daily inflows are published by CoinGlass before Polymarket reprices price-threshold markets
- Fear & Greed Index: Extreme fear (<20) and extreme greed (>80) are historically mean-reverting — markets at extremes are systemically mispriced
- Funding rates: Perpetual swap funding rates on Binance/Bybit signal over-leveraged positioning. Extreme positive funding → long squeeze likely → fade YES on price targets
Remix Signal Ideas
- Glassnode: https://glassnode.com/ (free tier available)
- CoinGlass ETF flows: https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf
- Alternative.me Fear & Greed: https://api.alternative.me/fng/
- Dune Analytics: https://dune.com/ — custom on-chain SQL queries
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py |
Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |
python trader.py --live |
Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY |
Yes | Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION |
See clawhub.json | Max USDC per trade |
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME |
See clawhub.json | Min market volume filter |
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD |
See clawhub.json | Max bid-ask spread |
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS |
See clawhub.json | Min days until resolution |
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS |
See clawhub.json | Max concurrent open positions |
Dependency
simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)
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