name: polymarket-food-agriculture-trader description: Trades Polymarket prediction markets on food commodity prices, crop yields, drought-driven supply shocks, alternative protein milestones, and agricultural policy events. Use when you want to capture alpha on food markets using USDA crop reports, futures curves, and weather-agriculture correlation signals. metadata: author: Diagnostikon version: "1.0" displayName: Food & Agriculture Trader difficulty: intermediate

Food & Agriculture Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

USDA WASDE report vs futures curve divergence. Remix: USDA NASS crop progress reports, FAO Food Price Index (monthly), CME agricultural futures term structure, World Bank commodity price data.

Edge Thesis

Agricultural markets are driven by hard data (USDA reports, satellite crop monitoring) but traded by retail participants who follow headlines:

• USDA WASDE calendar: The WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report is published monthly on a known date. Markets on crop yield thresholds frequently misprice in the days before release when satellite data already indicates the direction
• Coffee/cocoa supply concentration: 70% of cocoa comes from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana — any weather event in West Africa is a strong signal for cocoa price markets. Retail frequently underprices supply shock probability
• El Niño agricultural impact: ENSO forecasts from NOAA give 3–6 month lead time on major crop-growing regions. Markets on annual yield milestones rarely incorporate this correctly
• Alternative protein regulatory: Lab-grown meat approval timelines are public record from FDA/USDA FSIS filings — markets frequently underprice based on regulatory calendar

Remix Signal Ideas

• USDA NASS: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Data_and_Statistics/ — free crop progress API
• FAO Food Price Index: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/
• World Bank Commodity Prices: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
• Planet Labs crop monitoring: Satellite NDVI for major crop regions (paid but powerful)

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk