Geopolitics & Conflict Trader
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on geopolitical events — wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomatic breakthroughs, and regime changes. Use when you want to...
Description
name: polymarket-geopolitics-trader description: Trades Polymarket prediction markets on geopolitical events — wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomatic breakthroughs, and regime changes. Use when you want to capture alpha on international relations markets using news flow, think-tank signals, and UN vote data. metadata: author: Diagnostikon version: "1.0" displayName: Geopolitics & Conflict Trader difficulty: advanced
Geopolitics & Conflict Trader
This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
News velocity signal: geopolitical markets move fastest in first 30min after breaking news. Remix: ACLED conflict data API, GDELT event database, UN press release feed, ICG (International Crisis Group) alerts.
Edge Thesis
Geopolitical markets are the highest-edge category on Polymarket when news breaks outside US hours. The key pattern:
- Breaking news lag: Markets take 15–45 minutes to reprice after major geopolitical events that break during Asian or European hours
- Escalation vs de-escalation bias: Retail traders systematically overweight dramatic escalation scenarios (war extension, nuclear use) relative to base rates from conflict research databases like ACLED and ICG
- Ceasefire pricing: Historical ceasefire success rates (~40% within 6 months of announcement) are well-documented — markets often misprice vs this base rate
Remix Signal Ideas
- GDELT Project: https://www.gdeltproject.org/ — real-time global event database, free API
- ACLED conflict data: https://acleddata.com/ — armed conflict location and event data
- UN Security Council voting records: https://digitallibrary.un.org/
- ICG (International Crisis Group): https://www.crisisgroup.org/alerts
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py |
Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |
python trader.py --live |
Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY |
Yes | Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION |
See clawhub.json | Max USDC per trade |
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME |
See clawhub.json | Min market volume filter |
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD |
See clawhub.json | Max bid-ask spread |
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS |
See clawhub.json | Min days until resolution |
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS |
See clawhub.json | Max concurrent open positions |
Dependency
simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)
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