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name: polymarket-music-entertainment-trader description: Trades Polymarket prediction markets on music streaming milestones, album chart performance, Grammy nominations, concert tour revenues, and music industry deals. Use when you want to capture alpha on entertainment markets using Spotify/Billboard data signals and artist momentum indicators. metadata: author: Diagnostikon version: '1.0' displayName: Music & Entertainment Trader difficulty: beginner

Music & Entertainment Trader

This is a template.
The default signal is keyword discovery + Spotify Charts API momentum — remix it with Billboard chart position tracking, TikTok trending audio API, Apple Music chart feeds, or social media velocity metrics for artist momentum.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Record labels now monitor Polymarket the way Wall Street monitors stocks — as real-time demand signals for artist momentum. This creates an unusual information flow:

• Artists/labels with inside momentum push prices UP before numbers confirm
• Retail fans bid on emotional attachment, often overpaying for beloved artists
• Data-driven traders can fade fan-driven overpricing and capture industry-informed flows

This skill trades:

• Streaming milestones — First-week equivalents, billion-stream thresholds
• Chart performance — Billboard 200 #1, Hot 100 chart positions
• Awards — Grammy nominations/wins, VMAs, AMAs outcomes
• Tour revenue — Gross threshold markets for major arena tours
• Industry deals — Catalog sales, platform launches, licensing deals

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Spotify Charts Momentum + Market Mispricing

1. Discover active music/entertainment markets on Polymarket
2. Query Spotify Charts data for relevant artists (daily streams, velocity)
3. Compare stream trajectory with market's implied probability for milestone markets
4. Fade fan-driven overbetting: when an artist's market is at >80% despite weak streaming velocity, go NO
5. Identify underpriced breakout: artist trending +200% week-over-week with market at <60% for chart milestone

Remix Ideas

• TikTok Trending: Viral audio discovery as leading indicator for streaming momentum
• Ticketmaster/StubHub data: Secondary market ticket prices as proxy for tour gross markets
• RIAA certification API: Monitor certifications approaching milestone thresholds
• Twitter engagement velocity: Tweet impressions per hour as sentiment gauge
• Chartmetric API: Multi-platform streaming intelligence for informed positioning

Market Categories Tracked

MUSIC_KEYWORDS = [
    "Taylor Swift", "Bad Bunny", "Beyoncé", "Drake", "Kendrick",
    "Spotify", "Billboard", "Grammy", "streaming", "album",
    "chart", "tour", "concert", "sales", "certification",
    "K-pop", "Afrobeats", "Latin music", "country",
    "music industry", "catalog", "NFT music", "TikTok"
]

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$15 USDC	Entertainment markets are retail-driven
Min market volume	$2,000	Lower bar; community markets matter
Max bid-ask spread	15%	Entertainment markets can be illiquid
Min days to resolution	7	Streaming data needs time to settle
Max open positions	10	Diversify across artists and categories

Behavioral Edge

Fan Bias

Music fans are strongly emotionally attached. For beloved artists (Taylor Swift, BTS), markets consistently overprice YES outcomes by 8–15% vs streaming data expectations. Short-term this means NO positions on fan-favorite markets are structurally profitable.

Recency Momentum

Conversely, artists trending hard on TikTok are underpriced for 48–72 hours before mainstream media coverage. Early entry on breakout markets captures the lag.

Key Data Sources

• Spotify Charts: https://charts.spotify.com/charts/overview/global
• Billboard API: https://www.billboard.com/charts/
• Chartmetric: https://chartmetric.com/ (paid, powerful)
• RIAA Database: https://www.riaa.com/gold-platinum/

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-music-entertainment-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 30 minutes (*/30 * * * *). Chart data updates weekly; streaming data daily. No need for tight polling.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MUSIC_MAX_POSITION	15	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_MUSIC_MIN_VOLUME	2000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MUSIC_MAX_SPREAD	0.15	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
SIMMER_MUSIC_MIN_DAYS	7	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_MUSIC_MAX_POSITIONS	10	Max concurrent open positions

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.