---

name: pkedge description: "Monitor Polymarket prediction markets, spot mispricings between crowd probabilities and real-world evidence, track whale positioning from the top-50 leaderboard wallets, and detect fresh wallet insider signals. Supports four modes: SCAN (daily digest of flagged markets), DEEP DIVE (full single-market analysis with web search evidence), WHALE WATCH (consensus detection across top trader positions), and INSIDER WATCH (fresh wallet large-position detection)." homepage: https://polymarket.com metadata: { "openclaw": { "emoji": "📈", "requires": { "bins": ["curl", "node"], "env": ["PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_TOKEN_FREE", "PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_CHAT_FREE", "PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_TOKEN_TRADER", "PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_CHAT_TRADER"] } } } version: 1.1.0 author: pkedge license: MIT

PKEdge — Polymarket Intelligence Skill

Overview

PKEdge is an OpenClaw skill that monitors Polymarket prediction markets, spots mispricings between crowd probabilities and real-world evidence, tracks whale positioning from top-50 leaderboard wallets, and detects fresh wallet insider signals. It operates in four modes: SCAN, DEEP DIVE, WHALE WATCH, and INSIDER WATCH.

Intel only. Never recommends trading. Always appends "Not financial advice. DYOR."

Schedule:

• 8:00 AM ET — Daily SCAN digest (Trader + Free channels)
• 8:05 AM ET — Morning Whale Watch, 48h lookback (Trader only)
• 8:10 AM ET — Morning Insider Watch, 48h lookback (Trader only)
• 4:00 PM ET — Afternoon Whale Watch, 24h lookback (Trader only)
• 4:05 PM ET — Afternoon Insider Watch, 24h lookback (Trader only)
• Every 30 min — Real-time consensus alert when 3+ whales enter the same market
• Every 30 min — Real-time insider alert when fresh wallet drops >$50K on one market

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Install

1. cd into the skill folder and run npm install
2. Create a .env file with your Telegram credentials:
   • PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_TOKEN_FREE — bot token for the free channel
   • PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_CHAT_FREE — chat ID for the free channel
   • PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_TOKEN_TRADER — bot token for the trader channel
   • PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_CHAT_TRADER — chat ID for the trader channel
3. Run node cron.js to start scheduled jobs, or configure launchd to run on boot

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Trigger Phrases

Claude activates this skill when the user says anything matching these patterns:

SCAN mode

• "pkedge scan"
• "run the pkedge scan"
• "prediction market scan"
• "polymarket scan"
• "what markets are flagged today"
• "pkedge morning digest"

DEEP DIVE mode

• "pkedge deep dive [question or topic]"
• "analyze this market: [question]"
• "pkedge analyze: [question]"
• "what does pkedge think about [topic]"
• "is [market question] mispriced"
• "/deepdive [question]"

WHALE WATCH mode

• "pkedge whale watch"
• "whale watch"
• "what are the whales doing"
• "polymarket whale positions"
• "pkedge whales"

INSIDER WATCH mode

• "pkedge insider watch"
• "insider watch"
• "fresh wallet alert"
• "any insider activity"
• "pkedge insiders"
• "suspicious wallets"
• "new money polymarket"

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File Locations

~/Projects/pkedge/
  fetch.js      — all Polymarket API calls (no auth required)
  analyze.js    — scoring, flagging, conviction logic
  formatter.js  — Telegram message templates
  deliver.js    — sends to Telegram channels
  cron.js       — scheduled runner

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Mode: SCAN

Purpose: Fetch the top 200 active Polymarket markets by volume, flag anomalies, rank them, deliver the digest.

Step-by-step:

1. Call fetchActiveMarkets() from fetch.js

   • Returns normalized market objects with yesPrice, noPrice, volume, volume24hr, endDate
   • Filters to markets with >$10K all-time volume

2. Call runScanFlags(markets) from analyze.js

   • Applies 5 flags: VOLUME_SURGE, SPREAD_ANOMALY, VOLUME_SPIKE, EXTREME_LOW/HIGH, RESOLVING_SOON
   • Each flag carries a point value; scanScore is the sum
   • Returns flagged markets sorted by score descending

3. For the top 5 flagged markets, call web search on each question to check for recent news

   • Search: "[market question]" news today
   • Note any breaking news, resolution events, or catalysts
   • Add this context to the evidence for each market

4. Call formatScanDigest(flaggedMarkets, 5) from formatter.js for Trader channel

5. Call formatScanPreview(flaggedMarkets[0]) from formatter.js for Free channel

6. Deliver via deliver.js sendToTrader() and sendToFree()

Output shape:

🔍 PKEdge Morning Scan — Mon, Mar 9, 2026
_5 markets flagged from top 200 by volume_
──────────────────────
1. *Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?*
   🔥 HIGH  Crowd: YES 23.1%  |  24h Vol: $142K  |  Score: 7
   👀 Volume spike: 4.2x average daily volume — unusual activity
   ⏰ Resolves in 3.2 days
...

---

Mode: DEEP DIVE

Purpose: Full analysis of a single market. Claude reasons over crowd probability vs. real-world evidence, assesses fair value, and outputs a structured Crowd vs. Reality report.

Step-by-step:

1. Parse the market question from the user input

2. Call searchMarkets(query) from fetch.js to find the matching Polymarket market

   • If multiple results, pick the one with the highest volume
   • If zero results, tell the user no matching market was found on Polymarket

3. Fetch enriched market data:

   • fetchPriceHistory(market.id, '1d') — get price history with daily candles (note: '1d' sets candle granularity, not lookback window; the API returns available history for the market)
   • fetchBookDepth(market.clobTokenIds[0]) — get order book depth (YES token)
   • Compute price velocity from history: (most recent price − price from ~24h prior) in percentage points

4. Call analyzeMarket(market, bookDepth) from analyze.js

   • Returns analysis object with flags, spread note, resolution note, volume note

5. Web search × 3 to gather evidence:

   • Search 1: "[market question]" news [current month year]
   • Search 2: [core topic] forecast prediction [current year]
   • Search 3: [core topic] expert analysis probability
   • Synthesize key findings into 3–5 bullet points (each max 1 sentence)

6. Estimate fair value:

   • Based on web search evidence, base rates, and any quantitative anchors found
   • Express as a probability range: e.g., "52–60% YES"
   • Use the midpoint for conviction calculation

7. Call computeConviction(crowdPct, fairPct) from analyze.js

   • Returns { delta, direction, conviction: HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW, label }

8. Call formatDeepDive(analysis, conviction, evidenceLines) from formatter.js

9. Deliver via sendToTrader() (Deep Dive is Trader-only)

Output shape:

🧠 PKEdge Deep Dive
_Mar 9, 2026_
──────────────────────
*Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?*

CROWD PRICE
YES: 23.1%  |  NO: 76.9%

MARKET DATA
⏰ Resolves in 3.2 days
💰 All-time: $2.1M  |  24h: $142K
👀 Spread: 1.2¢ (bid 0.229 / ask 0.241)
✅ Order book: DEEP ($340K within 10¢)

EVIDENCE
✅ Fed funds futures pricing ~18% probability of March cut as of today
✅ Powell speech last week signaled patience — no urgency to cut
✅ February CPI came in at 2.9%, above 2% target
✅ No emergency FOMC meeting called — standard meeting format
✅ Metaculus consensus: 15-22% YES

──────────────────────
PKEDGE ASSESSMENT
🔥 Conviction: HIGH
Direction: NO underpriced
Delta: 18 percentage points from crowd
_Crowd is 18 pts away from fair value — strong signal_

`Not financial advice. DYOR. Prediction markets carry risk.`

---

Mode: WHALE WATCH

Purpose: Monitor top-50 Polymarket traders by all-time profit for new positions. Detect consensus (3+ whales entering the same market) and fire real-time alerts.

Runs twice daily:

• 8:05 AM ET — 48h lookback window. Catches anything that moved overnight or over the weekend.
• 4:00 PM ET — 24h lookback window. Covers the full trading day.

Step-by-step:

1. Call fetchLeaderboard(50) from fetch.js

   • Returns top 50 wallets by all-time profit
   • Each entry has: address, name (if set), pnl, volume

2. Extract all wallet addresses and call fetchMultiWalletPositions(addresses)

   • This loops through all 50 wallets with a 150ms delay between calls
   • Returns a Map of address → positions[]

3. Call buildWhaleReport(leaderboard, walletPositions, windowHours) from analyze.js

   • Morning run (8:05 AM): pass 48 as windowHours — covers overnight + weekend
   • Afternoon run (4:00 PM): pass 24 as windowHours — covers the trading day
   • Filters to positions opened within the window with >$1K value
   • Detects consensus: 3+ whales in the same market
   • Sorts by position size and consensus count

4. Call formatWhaleWatch(report) from formatter.js

5. Deliver via sendToTrader()

6. For any consensus markets not yet alerted today:

   • Call formatWhaleAlert(consensusMarket, latestPosition) from formatter.js
   • Deliver as an immediate alert (separate message, not part of digest)
   • Mark as alerted in the dedup set

Output shape:

🐋 PKEdge Whale Watch — Mon, Mar 9, 2026
_Top 50 traders scanned | Last 24h_
──────────────────────
🔥 CONSENSUS DETECTED (1 market)

1. *Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?*
   🐋x4 whales  |  💰$48K combined  |  Direction: *NO*
   _PredictWiz, 0x4f2a…1b3c, MarketMaker99 +1 more_

──────────────────────
NEW POSITIONS (6 total)

🐋 *PredictWiz*  →  NO
   _Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?_
   $22K @ 77¢  |  2h ago
...

---

Mode: INSIDER WATCH

Purpose: Detect fresh wallets placing unusually large positions — a classic signal of informed trading. Insiders often create new wallets specifically to avoid leaderboard detection. Two or more fresh wallets entering the same market within 6 hours is treated as a coordinated signal.

Fresh wallet definition:

• Wallet age < 30 days (based on first trade timestamp)
• Total lifetime trade count < 20
• Single position size > $5K

Alert tiers:

• $5K single position = 👀 WATCH (held for digest)

• $25K single position = ⚠️ ALERT (held for digest)

• $50K single position = 🚨 IMMEDIATE (fires real-time, does not wait for digest)

• 2+ fresh wallets same market within 6h = 🚨 COORDINATED (fires real-time regardless of size)

Runs twice daily:

• 8:10 AM ET — 48h lookback
• 4:05 PM ET — 24h lookback
• Every 30 min — real-time scan for >$50K single fresh wallet drops (lower amounts held for digest)

Step-by-step:

1. Call fetchActiveMarkets() — sort by 24h volume, take top 30 as scan targets

2. Call fetchLeaderboard(50) — build a Set of known addresses to exclude

3. For each top market, call fetchRecentTrades(market.clobTokenIds[0], windowHours) from fetch.js

   • Collect unique maker/taker addresses from trades
   • Filter to trades with sizeUSD > $5K
   • Exclude addresses in the leaderboard Set

4. For each unknown address with a qualifying trade, call fetchWalletProfile(address) from fetch.js

   • Returns { firstTradeAt, tradeCount, totalVolume }
   • Flag as fresh if: wallet age ≤ 30 days AND tradeCount ≤ 20

5. Call buildInsiderReport(freshSignals, windowHours) from analyze.js

   • Groups fresh wallet positions by market
   • Detects coordinated entries: 2+ fresh wallets same market within 6h
   • Scores each signal (see Scoring Reference)
   • Returns: { signals, coordinatedMarkets, immediateAlerts }

6. Call formatInsiderWatch(report) from formatter.js

7. Deliver via sendToTrader()

8. For IMMEDIATE-tier (>$50K) or COORDINATED signals not yet alerted today:

   • Call formatInsiderAlert(signal, isCoordinated) from formatter.js
   • Deliver as a real-time alert
   • Mark in the dedup set

Output shape — daily digest:

🕵️ PKEdge Insider Watch — Mon, Mar 9, 2026
_Unknown wallets scanned | Last 24h_
──────────────────────
🚨 COORDINATED SIGNAL (1 market)

*Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?*
   🆕x2 fresh wallets  |  💰$61K combined  |  Direction: *NO*
   _First two entered within 2h of each other_
   Wallet: 0x7c3b…9a12 — Age: 4 days | 3 trades | $38K → NO
   Wallet: 0x2d1f…4e87 — Age: 11 days | 7 trades | $23K → NO

──────────────────────
WATCH LIST (3 signals)

👀 *Fresh wallet — 0x9f4a…2c31*
   _Will Trump win the 2026 midterms?_
   $8K → YES @ 41¢  |  6h ago
   Age: 18 days | 12 trades lifetime

`Not financial advice. DYOR. Fresh wallet signals are circumstantial.`

Output shape — real-time alert:

🚨 PKEdge Insider Alert
_Fresh wallet just dropped big money_

*Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?*
Direction: NO  |  Size: $38K @ 77¢
Wallet: `0x7c3b…9a12`
Age: 4 days  |  3 trades lifetime

`Not financial advice. DYOR. Circumstantial signal only.`

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API Reference (All Free, No Auth)

Endpoint	Purpose
GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&limit=200	Market discovery
GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?slug={slug}	Single market by slug
GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/prices-history?market={id}&interval=1d	Price history
GET https://clob.polymarket.com/book?token_id={tokenId}	Order book
GET https://clob.polymarket.com/midpoint?token_id={tokenId}	Midpoint price
GET https://clob.polymarket.com/bbo?token_id={tokenId}	Best bid/offer
GET https://clob.polymarket.com/trades?token_id={tokenId}&limit=500	Recent market trades (Insider Watch)
GET https://data-api.polymarket.com/v1/leaderboard?timePeriod=ALL&orderBy=PNL&limit=50	Top traders
GET https://data-api.polymarket.com/positions?user={address}	Wallet positions
GET https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user={address}&limit=500	Wallet trade history + profile

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Environment Variables

PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_TOKEN_FREE=
PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_CHAT_FREE=
PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_TOKEN_TRADER=
PKEDGE_TELEGRAM_CHAT_TRADER=

No market data API keys needed. Polymarket APIs are fully public.

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Subscription Tiers

Tier	Price	What They Get
FREE EDGE	$0	1 market preview from daily SCAN
WATCHER	$9/mo	Full 5-market SCAN digest, @PKEdgeBot basic (3 lookups/day)
TRADER	$29/mo	Unlimited DEEP DIVE, WHALE WATCH, INSIDER WATCH, all real-time alerts
QUANT	$99/mo	Raw scoring API, Discord quant channel, historical accuracy log

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Scoring Reference

SCAN Score Flags:

Flag	Points	Trigger
VOLUME_SPIKE	3	24h volume >3× average daily
VOLUME_SURGE	2	>25% of all-time volume traded in last 24h
RESOLVING_SOON	2	Resolves within 7 days
SPREAD_ANOMALY	1	YES + NO gap >6¢
EXTREME_LOW / HIGH	1	Price ≤10% or ≥90% on high volume

Score thresholds: 2 = WATCH | 4 = ELEVATED | 6+ = HIGH

Conviction thresholds: <7 pts = LOW | 7-14 pts = MEDIUM | 15+ pts = HIGH

Insider Signal Score:

Factor	Points
Position > $5K	1
Position > $25K	3
Position > $50K	3
Wallet age < 7 days	3
Wallet age 7–14 days	2
Wallet age 15–30 days	1
Trade count < 5	2
Trade count 5–10	1
Coordinated (2+ fresh wallets same market within 6h)	+5 bonus

Insider alert thresholds: 3 = WATCH | 6 = ALERT | 9+ = COORDINATED / IMMEDIATE

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Guardrails

• Never state that a market "will" resolve in a particular direction
• Never say "buy YES" or "buy NO" — frame as "YES appears underpriced relative to evidence"
• Always append Not financial advice. DYOR. Prediction markets carry risk.
• If web search returns no useful news, state that clearly rather than fabricating evidence
• If a market has a thin order book (<$10K depth), always flag it prominently
• Do not deep-dive markets with <$5K total volume — not enough liquidity to be meaningful
• For Insider Watch: never accuse wallets of wrongdoing — frame as "unusual pattern" not "insider trading"
• Fresh wallet signals are circumstantial — always note that large new positions can have innocent explanations