name: manifold description: "Search, analyze, and trade on Manifold Markets prediction markets. Use when the user wants to look up prediction market odds, place bets, check their portfolio, or discuss Manifold markets." metadata: { "openclaw": { "emoji": "📈", "requires": { "bins": ["python3"], "env": ["MANIFOLD_API_KEY"] }, "primaryEnv": "MANIFOLD_API_KEY", }, }

Manifold Markets

Trade on prediction markets via the Manifold API. All commands output JSON.

Script path: {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py

Run with: python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py <command> [options]

Check Balance

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py balance

Search Markets

# Search by keyword
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py search "US election"

# Open binary markets, sorted by popularity
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py search "AI" --filter open --sort most-popular --limit 5

# Closing soon
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py search "" --filter closing-week --sort close-date

Filters: all, open, closed, resolved, closing-day, closing-week, closing-month

Sorts: most-popular, newest, score, daily-score, 24-hour-vol, liquidity, close-date, prob-descending, prob-ascending

Get Market Details & Probability

# By ID
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py market <market-id>

# By slug (from URL)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py market some-market-slug

# Just the probability
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py prob <market-id>

Place Bets

# Market order: bet 100 mana on YES
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bet <contract-id> 100 YES

# Limit order at 40% probability
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bet <contract-id> 100 YES --limit-prob 0.40

# Dry run (simulate without executing)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bet <contract-id> 100 YES --dry-run

# Bet on a specific answer in a multiple-choice market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bet <contract-id> 50 YES --answer-id <answer-id>

# Limit order that expires in 1 hour
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bet <contract-id> 100 YES --limit-prob 0.35 --expires-ms 3600000

Sell Shares

# Sell all shares in a market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py sell <contract-id>

# Sell specific outcome
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py sell <contract-id> --outcome YES

# Sell partial shares
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py sell <contract-id> --outcome NO --shares 50

# Sell in multiple-choice market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py sell <contract-id> --answer-id <answer-id>

Cancel Limit Order

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py cancel <bet-id>

Portfolio & Positions

# Your portfolio summary
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py portfolio

# Your current positions with contract details
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py my-positions --limit 10 --order profit

# Positions/leaderboard for a specific market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py positions <contract-id> --top 10

# Your position in a specific market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py positions <contract-id> --user-id <your-user-id>

Bet History

# Your recent bets
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bets --username <your-username>

# Bets on a specific market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bets --contract-id <contract-id>

# Open limit orders only
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bets --username <your-username> --kinds open-limit

Your Profile

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py me

Notes

• All monetary amounts are in mana (M$). New accounts start with M$1,000.
• Limit orders use probabilities from 0.01 to 0.99 (two decimal places).
• Always use --dry-run first when the user asks to place a bet, so they can confirm the expected outcome before committing real mana.
• The search results include id fields — use these as contract-id for betting/selling.
• For multiple-choice markets, fetch market details first to see available answers and their IDs.
• API rate limit: 500 requests/minute.