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name: polymarket-space-trader description: Trades Polymarket prediction markets on space launches, SpaceX milestones, satellite deployments, Mars missions, and commercial spaceflight outcomes. Use when you want to capture alpha on the rapidly growing space exploration market with 22% CAGR and clear binary resolution criteria. metadata: author: Diagnostikon version: '1.0' displayName: Space & Launch Trader difficulty: intermediate

Space & Launch Trader

This is a template.
The default signal is keyword discovery + FAA/SpaceX launch schedule alignment — remix it with NASA launch manifest APIs, TLE (Two-Line Element) satellite tracking data, or social media sentiment from SpaceX/Blue Origin announcements.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Space prediction markets have shown $120M+ cumulative volume (2020–2025) with 22% CAGR. Polymarket currently lists 106+ active space markets. This skill trades:

• SpaceX milestones — Starship orbital tests, launch counts, Starlink constellation size
• Mars missions — NASA/private mission announcements and landing events
• Commercial spaceflight — Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Axiom Space timelines
• Satellite & telecom — Orbital congestion, direct-to-cell launch milestones
• Regulatory events — FAA approvals, international launch cadence comparisons

Key insight: volatility spikes ~25% around launch events, creating short-window entry opportunities for informed traders.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Launch Schedule Divergence

1. Discover active space/launch markets on Polymarket
2. Query public launch databases (Rocket Watch, Next Spaceflight) for upcoming dates
3. Compare scheduled launch date probability with current market price
4. Before confirmed launches, markets often underprice success (retail pessimism bias)
5. After anomalies (Falcon 9 hold, weather scrub), markets may overreact — fade the overreaction

Remix Ideas

• Twitter/X sentiment: SpaceX tweet activity correlates with 30% volume spikes — use as momentum signal
• FAA NOTAM filings: File of Notice to Air Missions is public and indicates imminent launches days ahead
• Satellite tracker APIs: Real orbital data to verify Starlink counts vs market claims
• NASA API: https://api.nasa.gov/ for real-time mission status feeds

Market Categories Tracked

SPACE_KEYWORDS = [
    "SpaceX", "Starship", "Starlink", "launch", "rocket",
    "Mars", "NASA", "Blue Origin", "Virgin Galactic", "Axiom",
    "satellite", "orbital", "ISS", "FAA", "Falcon",
    "space station", "lunar", "Artemis", "ESA"
]

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$30 USDC	Space markets have good liquidity
Min market volume	$2,500	Space community is engaged
Max bid-ask spread	8%	Tighter than climate markets
Min days to resolution	3	Short-window launch events are tradable
Max open positions	6	Space events cluster by launch window

Volatility Note

Space markets spike sharply on anomaly news. If a launch is scrubbed, NO prices spike immediately. The skill detects these via context flip-flop warnings and pauses during high-volatility windows unless edge is strong.

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-space-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 10 minutes (*/10 * * * *). Launch events can resolve rapidly; tighter loop than other categories.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_SPACE_MAX_POSITION	30	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_SPACE_MIN_VOLUME	2500	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_SPACE_MAX_SPREAD	0.08	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
SIMMER_SPACE_MIN_DAYS	3	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_SPACE_MAX_POSITIONS	6	Max concurrent open positions

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.