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name: polymarket-supply-chain-trader description: Trades Polymarket prediction markets focused on supply chain disruptions, port congestion, shipping delays, commodity prices, and logistics outcomes. Use when you want to capture alpha on global trade flow events, raw material price markets, and demand spike predictions. metadata: author: Diagnostikon version: '1.0' displayName: Supply Chain & Logistics Trader difficulty: intermediate

Supply Chain & Logistics Trader

This is a template.
The default signal is keyword-based market discovery (shipping, port, logistics, commodity, supply chain) — remix it with freight index APIs (Baltic Dry Index), satellite AIS vessel tracking data, or real-time port authority feeds.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Supply chain prediction markets are among the most underserved categories on Polymarket. This skill identifies and trades markets related to:

• Port congestion — Rotterdam, Suez Canal, LA/Long Beach delays
• Commodity prices — Brent crude, steel, lithium thresholds
• Demand spikes — GPU/chip shortages, EV battery supply
• Company logistics — Tesla delivery delays, Maersk shipping times, Amazon Prime SLAs

Research shows prediction markets can reduce supply chain forecasting errors by 20–50% vs traditional methods (CFTC data). This makes these markets both tradable AND informative.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Keyword Discovery + Liquidity Filter

1. Search Polymarket for active markets containing supply-chain keywords
2. Filter for markets with >$5,000 volume and bid-ask spread <10%
3. Apply probability mean-reversion: markets deviating >15% from 30-day moving average are flagged
4. Check context for flip-flop risk and slippage before entering
5. Enter YES if market probability is abnormally depressed despite strong fundamentals, NO otherwise

Remix Ideas

• Baltic Dry Index signal: Long YES on shipping delay markets when BDI spikes >15% week-over-week
• USDA crop report: Trade agricultural supply markets around report release dates
• Port authority RSS feeds: Real-time congestion data as entry trigger
• Satellite AIS tracking: Vessel queue counts for LA/Long Beach as direct oracle

Market Categories Tracked

SUPPLY_CHAIN_KEYWORDS = [
    "shipping", "port", "container", "supply chain", "logistics",
    "commodity", "crude oil", "steel price", "lithium", "semiconductor",
    "chip shortage", "delivery delay", "Maersk", "Rotterdam", "Suez",
    "GPU demand", "battery supply", "Amazon Prime"
]

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$25 USDC	Per market
Min market volume	$5,000	Liquidity filter
Max bid-ask spread	10%	Slippage guard
Min days to resolution	7	Avoid last-minute noise
Max open positions	5	Concentration limit

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-supply-chain-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 15 minutes (*/15 * * * *). Markets are slow-moving enough that high-frequency execution is unnecessary.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_SUPPLY_MAX_POSITION	25	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_SUPPLY_MIN_VOLUME	5000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_SUPPLY_MAX_SPREAD	0.10	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
SIMMER_SUPPLY_MIN_DAYS	7	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_SUPPLY_MAX_POSITIONS	5	Max concurrent open positions

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.